According to the latest market reports, the market is keeping a close eye on news from the Black Sea as it assesses the accessibility of Ukrainian supplies. The global supply of grains, particularly maize, remains balanced with demand. However, if there is a surge in maize supplies and Black Sea wheat continues to be competitive, it could put pressure on prices.

In terms of maize, weather conditions in the US are being closely monitored as the crop begins to dent. However, the long-term outlook remains positive with large South American crops and the second largest US crop on record expected to boost supplies.

The global barley market is being supported by tight supplies, with feed barley prices benefiting from the wider grains market. Nonetheless, a large global maize supply could weigh down prices in the long run, similar to what is expected for wheat.

Last week, there were mixed movements in global grain contracts. Chicago wheat and maize contracts experienced overall pressure, while there was a rise in prices for Paris milling wheat futures. Concerns over Black Sea supply due to ongoing conflicts initially led to price gains, but competitive Russian wheat and the release of the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) later resulted in price losses.

The latest USDA WASDE report showed a reduction in global ending stocks for both wheat and maize in the 2023/24 season. Global wheat production was lowered due to smaller crops in Canada, the EU, and China. Global consumption was also trimmed, but wheat ending stocks still fell, reaching the lowest level since 2015/16. Additionally, US wheat export forecasts were slightly reduced for this season.

As for maize, global ending stocks were also trimmed, but they remain higher compared to the previous year. The US maize crop was revised down due to the first survey-based yield forecast, although it remains the second largest on record.

In summary, the market is closely watching Black Sea wheat, US weather conditions, and the overall balance between supply and demand. Any significant developments in these areas could impact grain prices in the global market.