As the Republican candidates took the stage for their first presidential debate, tax policy experts are turning their attention to the future of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). The TCJA, which was passed in 2017 under the Trump administration, made significant changes to tax policies, including the elimination of the advance refunding of tax-exempt bonds and a cap on the state and local tax deduction.

The muni world is particularly interested in restoring advance refunding and removing the cap on the state and local tax deduction. These issues are expected to be points of emphasis in the coming years, with many muni leaders predicting that any movement on these issues will likely come with new lawmakers in place.

The contentious terms of the TCJA are already making appearances on the campaign trail. Several candidates have indicated that they would extend the tax cuts, and even President Biden has expressed openness to extending the tax cuts for individuals making under $400,000. The future of the individual income tax is a fair game for debate.

Economist Erica York from the Tax Foundation also points to the recent Fitch downgrade as a reason to reexamine the math behind the rising deficits, interest costs, and potential revenue loss from extending the tax cuts.

Interestingly, during the debate, the Republican candidates did not mention the word "recession" when discussing economic issues. Analysts suggest that this may be due to a growing optimism among economists about the nation's prospects of avoiding a recession. Instead, the candidates focused on pocketbook issues that may resonate more deeply with voters.

In conclusion, it is likely that the future of the TCJA will be a topic of debate in the 2024 election, with candidates discussing the potential extension of the tax cuts and addressing the issues surrounding the advance refunding and state and local tax deduction. The absence of the word "recession" during the debate suggests a shift in focus towards other economic concerns.