Despite recent concerns about a potential stock market crash, the charts suggest that a crash may not be imminent. The volatility index for the S&P 500, known as the VIX, is currently trading near its lowest levels since the start of 2020. This indicates that investors are not expecting a large move in the coming weeks.
Another chart to consider is the put-to-call ratio for the NASDAQ 100. A ratio above one suggests that investors are buying more put options, indicating negative sentiment and a possible hedge against a crash. The current ratio is 1.61, which does show some negative sentiment, but it has been higher before.
It's also important to note that there are areas of support in the market that could prevent a full-on crash. The S&P 500 has rallied 25% from its October lows and is trading at over 22 times earnings. While there may be pressure on corporate profits, investors may still be hesitant to completely abandon stocks.
Overall, while concerns about a stock market crash exist, the charts suggest that a crash may not be immediately imminent. It's important for investors to remain cautious and monitor market conditions closely.
Sources:
- Vincent Deluard warns of potential drop in stocks and home prices, slowdown in US economy - Business Insider
- Is a Stock Market Crash Looming? What the Charts Say - The Motley Fool
Walmart, the country's largest retailer by revenue, has raised its sales outlook fueled by consumers looking for deals. Compared to the start of the year, the consumer picture is looking up for Walmart. The retailer's faster productivity growth has resulted in higher profits, benefiting both the stock market and the fight against higher inflation. Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the Wharton School of Business, stated that real increases in productivity and growth have improved profits, allowing the stock market to hold its own despite higher rates. The strong economic reports and bounceback in productivity have also helped to keep inflation in check.
Walmart's success can also be attributed to its expanding selection of groceries in stores and strong online sales. Despite a long stretch of inflation, the retailer has kept prices low, attracting cash-strapped consumers who notice the price gaps compared to other retailers. Walmart has regained its operational efficiency, thanks in part to the leadership of its experienced CFO, John David Rainey. The company's solid sales growth has led to an increase in full-year EPS guidance.
Overall, Walmart's ability to provide value to customers through its low prices and convenience has contributed to its improved sales outlook. The retailer's performance in the second quarter outshined its competitor, Target, with higher customer traffic, comparable sales, and e-commerce sales. Walmart's transformation over the years has allowed it to appeal to a wider customer base, including those with higher incomes who value convenience.
Source: Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Yahoo Finance
Renowned money manager Michael Burry, famous for his bets against the US housing market prior to the 2008 financial crisis, has taken a bearish stance on the broader market. Burry's Scion Asset Management has positioned itself against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Index, using put options to express this outlook. The hedge fund purchased put options worth $739 million against the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF and an additional $886 million worth of put options against the SPDR S&P 500 ETF. These put options, which provide the right to sell shares at a predetermined price in the future, reflect a bearish or defensive perspective.
The exact cost of acquiring these put options remains undisclosed, but it is noted that they reflect a significant bet against US markets. Burry gained fame through his astute bets against the US housing market, which were chronicled in the book and movie "The Big Short." Despite his pessimistic outlook, the S&P 500 has advanced approximately 17% year-to-date, while the Nasdaq 100 has surged nearly 39% during the same period.
