UBS analysts predict that a failure by US lawmakers to raise the country's $31tn debt limit by June 1 could set off a rally in the Treasury market. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said Congress not raising the debt limit to cover the country's obligations would be the cause of a default unless an agreement is reached soon. In a possible default scenario, UBS said that sovereign-default risk is low because it expects Treasury to prioritise principal and interest payments. The Treasury market would also likely rally as it would still be seen as a safe haven despite a negative effect on economic growth likely leading to a recession, UBS added.