China's economy, once seen as a potential rival to the U.S., is now facing multiple challenges while the U.S. experiences strong economic growth. The Chinese property market has slumped, local government debts are unmanageable, and confidence is declining. On the other hand, the U.S. recorded its strongest quarter in nearly two years and inflation is subsiding.
What caused this shift in two years? Western experts attribute it to long-standing problems in China that have been exacerbated by President Xi Jinping's policies. While China's GDP may eventually reach 90% or even 100% of the U.S.'s, it is unlikely to surpass 150% or 200%. China's aspirations to lead the global economy have been significantly set back.
In addition to economic challenges, China's behavior on climate change and human rights has raised concerns. China continues to build new coal-fired power plants, despite being the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. The regime is also cracking down on environmental groups, independent journalism, and vulnerable populations. The European Union has also called for an end to human rights dialogue with China.
To address these issues, the Biden administration should consider deploying U.S. economic power without China's consent or participation. Measures such as enforcing the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, imposing targeted sanctions, and controlling exports to companies involved in rights violations outside China could make a difference. However, international cooperation is crucial for these measures to be effective.
China's economy is no longer on the rise, and its path to global economic primacy seems uncertain. Meanwhile, the U.S. is experiencing robust growth and has an opportunity to address China's behavior on various fronts.
Sources:
- Greg Ip, The Wall Street Journal
- HT Digital Streams Limited
- The Washington Post